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Perspective ~ Election Analysis and Prediction

Sedona AZ (November 5, 2011) – In a Letter to the Sedona Eye editor, Terry Nash submitted the following perspective on the November 8, 2011 special referendum on the Highway 89A turnback issue between ADOT and the City of Sedona. 

My prediction first: Ownership of 89A will go down in defeat by a margin of 60 to 40. It will probably be a higher number.

There are three factions: (1) Sheri Graham contingent; (2) Barbara Litrell, Cliff Hamilton, Dennis Rayner contingent; (3) All the rest. We are well versed in the first two groups. They will be evenly divided at the polls. The swing group is “All the rest.” Except in rare instances they have not become involved in the childish dialogue. The first two groups are steeped in self righteous purpose and fueled by a deluded thought process both of which isolate them from the realty of life both inside and outside of Sedona.

Overriding both sides over-developed sense of purpose regarding Sedona is the everyday reality of life in Sedona which is most disturbing. Except for the strongly held belief that Sedona is “the most beautiful place on earth” there is really nothing of note going on in Sedona. Real estate values have been crushed. Small businesses are hanging by a slim thread over the vast expanse of a devastated economy. Arizona is generally viewed as one of a handful of states that belong in another era when civil rights was a fledgling movement.

The average citizen is not involved in either of these groups. This “All the rest” group manages to stay attuned to the World’s Predicament – and the World is indeed a scary place. Their world is not one of both isolation and elitism as is the case of the two groups who are fighting so stridently for victory. Their world is that finally their social security benefits will increase by nearly 4% next year. Their world is that a home they purchased years ago has fallen to nearly the same value as it was then. They keep thinking that with enough tourist dollars maybe there will never be a Sedona property tax; that food won’t continue to climb in price until what is left for them is beans or rice; that Medicare won’t be broke before they need their hips replaced; that the entire nation and State of Arizona won’t go broke with a run on banks before sunset.

So they will vote against taking on the burden of ownership of 89A and a financial burden which is impossible to calculate. When they do manage to digest the news of the day they see the protests all over the world for financial equality but deep in their hearts they know it will probably never come to pass and that the best they can do is hold on for dear life.

The “rest of us,” the 99% will vote down 89A ownership, while the other 1%, the isolationists and elitists, will continue in their dance to dominate one another.

For “All the rest” it is a much simpler and more immediate choice.

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14 Comments

  1. Eddie S. Maddock says:

    Terry, seeing one of your profound writings again in print is a refreshing turn of events.

    No doubt in my mind you will rile up a few on both sides of, literally, “main street” referring to the issue at hand: State Route 89A.

    However, providing the silent majority isn’t so discouraged as to believe the growing trend that “their vote won’t matter so why bother” let us for a moment reflect back a couple of years ago when Mayor Rob Adams won his seat by a mere four votes.

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I so hope your prediction for the outcome of the election will prove to be true.

    E. Maddock

  2. Jocelyn Buckner says:

    The fact that Taco Bell and Kentucky Fried Chicken closed in Sedona is a great big RED FLAG as far as the success of the businesses on 89A. How does a well-known national franchise close in a town where there are 4 million visitors a year? I am not the only one to see the numbers of tourist falling off lately. There is a building tension in the populace, caused from the fear perpetuated in the newspapers/media… and when the truth is exposed (such as autism linked to vaccinations and chemtrails in our skies) most don’t even realize the truth of it when they see it. The government agencies are selling BS in the form of “SAFETY” as the money is picked from your pocket. It won’t be long before a lot more businesses go the way of Taco Bell. Our lives would be better if there were less corruption in government, but until we decide to REALLY do something different, it will be business as usual. This election will have the same outcome (resulting from false promises) as the limited access of Rachel’s Knoll and the closure of the Cultural Park… It doesn’t matter, really, how you vote — it only matters who counts the votes. We will survive because there’s no other choice.

  3. Terry Nash says:

    Hi,
    Since I haven’t been in Sedona for a month or so I wasn’t aware KFC and Taco Bell had closed at their new joint location. If that is correct that is very bad news for the health of Sedona’s economy given the fact the KFC and Taco Bell rarely close even in Detroit.
    Can you please confirm to me that it is indeed the case?

    Terry

  4. Eddie S. Maddock says:

    Well, it appears the Sedona City Council already knows the outcome of the election. The City Council Agenda for the meeting scheduled on Wednesday, November 9, 2011*, 4:30 p.m.

    Under 9. Regular Business, “Item a: Discussion/possible action in response to preliminary election results on Proposition 410. Possible action may include, but not be limited to, directing staff to meet with ADOT representatives regarding the future of Highway 89A construction.”

    *meeting changed from Tuesday to Wednesday due to conflict with Election Day.

    Amazing! This scheduled before the body was pronounced dead, was still warm, and not even buried? How did they know the outcome of the election prior to the vote?

    Who is sitting guard at City Hall to find out how the vote is being manipulated if, indeed, that is the case. How else could this assurance of the outcome of the vote be ascertained?

    Mayor Adams, City Manager Tim Ernster, and City Attorney Mike Goimaric, please be prepared to address this most peculiar scheduling.

    Is it true that in past elections the practice of “bundling” submissions of votes has been practiced without control? If true, do you have adequate protection in place to prevent this from happening on Monday (tomorrow) and Tuesday to prevent this most destructive and despicable activity from occurring again at this all time most critical election?

    Respectfully,
    E. S. Maddock

  5. Sheri Graham says:

    Terry, think the businesses you refer to are a sign of the times in Sedona as over regulated (during design and construction)- which cost them way too much to develop. It is my opinion that they may not have done their due diligence which deflects from the direction you took. My understanding is that they ran out of money during their development due to city regulations and requirements. They were able to regroup for a while- yet the debt load of construction and etc, became way too much.

    So, no Terry, they do not reflect on the businesses that are and trying to hold on…and who do survive in west Sedona.

    A bad business plan remains just that: a bad business plan and that also reflects to why so many people are voting a NO on 410 and a resounding YES on 411.

    Hope I’ve been able to answer and clarify your questions?

    Sheri Graham

  6. Terry Nash says:

    Thanks Sheri,
    I am by nature a fiscal conservative.
    The issue of ownership of 89a was always a simple one for me – it is impossible to determine the long-term costs no matter what up-front money is offered. And since it will always be a feeder line to all points west and east it will do the duties of a State Highway. Perhaps if as in the case of many Texas roads it becomes a toll road the the long-term incalculable cost will be borne by the City of Sedona and therefore its citizens.
    It would be difficult for any but the most emotional among us to quarrel with that agrument.
    Most of the citizens of Sedona live a very frugal existence and don’t have excess disposable income and thus can’t afford any potential financial exposure regarding ownership of 89A. This I believe will be
    firmly avowed in the election results.
    Issues of Dark Skies and Safety have overshadowned the unfortunate fact that Sedona has not been prosperous (Arizona as well) for either most of its businesses or it citizens for years. And the long-term predictions are very bleak, indeed – the latest census showed that in the last 5 year period Sedona lost 800 residents out of a population base of 11,200. I think the personal attacks by both ‘vocal’ sides to this issue have
    done a great disservice to the community. From afar, it seems immature and even childish and does not speak well of the community at large and for want of a better phase, the political factions within.
    Even though the outcome of this election will no doubt be the defeat of ownership of Highway 89A the divide will remain and simmer until “Rome Burns”.
    Unifying leadership must emerge for Sedona to grow and prosper.
    I doubt the community has either the wisdom or the will to pursue such this outcome.

    Terry Nash

  7. Tommy says:

    Win or lose on 410, ADOT’s not coming to the table anymore on 89A transfer.

  8. Eddie S. Maddock says:

    In an e-mail from Mayor Rob Adams I learned it was Councilman Cliff Hamilton who requested for the ADOT issue to be placed on next Wednesday’s council meeting agenda.

    Although the mayor offered the suggestion that I contact Mr. Hamilton to ascertain his reason for scheduling the meeting with ADOT, my response was to the effect, why bother? At least three of our seated council members have confirmed by virtue of their full page ad in the Sedona Red Rock News that they have and continue to service their own agendas. Perhaps it was due to the quorum of four law that prevented the fourth member of the Sedona City Council who voted to create this fiasco from also lobbying extensively to uphold his vote for Sedona to own a State Highway.

    That being said, I will publicly thank Mayor Adams for taking time to respond, as always, to my concerns, whether of a personal nature or a community issue. I cannot say that of other members of our current seated Sedona City Council.

    Regardless of the outcome of this election no one will win. There will only be losers. Substitute Sedona for Humpty Dumpty in the well known child’s rhyme: “All the kings horses and all the kings men, couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty together again.” Anyone foolish enough to think the damage done to this community as a result of the lies and deception employed by current elected officials is irreversible is, in my opinion, delusional.

    This really horrible exercise in tripping through one’s life experience reminds me of yet another quote from John Greenleaf Whittier: “For all sad words of tongue and pen, the saddest are these, ‘It might have been’.”

    The faith and trust proven with the overwhelming support of the current elected members of the Sedona City Council thinking they would represent the solution for bringing Sedona together, a long sought after desire by those of us who trusted and believed, has been trashed. Take pride in your accomplishments for having deceived and betrayed those of us who foolishly placed our confidence in your integrity.

    Eddie Maddock

  9. Opinion about an Opinion says:

    Here is the catch. The factions are like two dogs fighting over a buried bone that ain’t there. ADOT does not have the money, either to bribe us to transfer or put up the lights. Nash as a predictor is impeccable. No matter what. it’s lights out for Sedona.

  10. Alan says:

    Thank you Almighty that the Fat Lady Sings Today!

  11. Terry Nash says:

    So far 71 to 29 not to acquire. A council out of touch, elite and isolationist as I predicted. Now if the community is wise and committed it can begin rebuilding. But not with the current council or mayor.
    Change is in the air.

    Nash

  12. Eddie S. Maddock says:

    Results of election translated: The citizens of Sedona are far brighter and more educated than the “elite and isolationists” realized. Wonder how the request for staff to meet with ADOT to discuss SR89A improvements will be handled at the City Council meeting this evening?

    E. Maddock

  13. Tresa Magiera Stitley says:

    THERE IS ALWAYS A GOOD SIDE – Everything depends on the way you look at things. View every problem you encounter as an opportunity. There is always a good side to every situation. The optimist sees an opportunity in every misfortune. The pessimist sees misfortune in every opportunity. The optimist sees the doughnut. The pessimist sees the hole. You can develop success from every failure. Discouragement and failure are two stepping stones to your success. No other elements can do so much for you if you’re willing to study them and make them work for you. When it is dark enough, you can see the stars.

  14. sheri graham says:

    Tresa is absolutely correct – “There is always a good side – everything depends on the way you look at things.”

    It seems very clear that 71% of the 65% of the voters decided to look at how the current council took ownership of 89A and found the positive way to overturn their vote, which was clearly seen as a huge negative for the 4 council members = a positive for the citizens.

    I’m thinking the 77% (of the same 65% of voters) of the optimists saw the the “doughnut” and as they voted – demanding the final say on any ownership of a state highway in Sedona – they saw the good side and let their voices be heard. Am I missing something?

    Looks like the voters saw the stars – and we move forward.

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