Sedona AZ (October 17, 2012) – Activity in Sedona Residential Homes continues at a steady pace, even though Closed Sales are continuing at a lower level than the average yearly pattern (see chart below). Perhaps Buyers believed that the cheap mortgage bonanza would end, and therefore decided to act more quickly than normal this year.
In fact, mortgage rates have continued to fall as the Federal Reserve accommodates the market with cheap money. I recently saw a conforming 30 year fixed rate at 3.36%.
(For those of you who like to follow the market on a weekly basis, please look for my blog.)
A negative for values is noticeable, week by week - there continue to be price reductions with no real price increases, as Sellers attempt to attract Buyers. Since the week ending May 5, 2012, the total number of price reductions on a weekly basis is 319, while increases total 13.
Taking a rolling six month series for Closed Residential Home sales, the average price per square foot has improved. For the six months ending in January 2012, the value was $165.89 per square foot. The series peaked in July at $195.31 per square foot, and has slipped back slightly to $192.63 per square foot in September.
The table above shows the Average Price per Square Foot, taking this six month rolling data series, and then plotting the change from January 2000 if the original point had been increased by the Consumer Price Index.
Continuing low rates and an active market have yet to lead to an improvement in the values of Sedona Residential Homes. The table below, which covers two years, shows Median Prices for closed sales of Residential property only, in the whole of Sedona, but taken on a quarter by quarter basis.
You will note that Median Prices are contained within a range, roughly between $300,000 and $400,000.
Looking at Median Prices based on the rolling six month data series, again, for the whole of Sedona, we have remained in an even narrower range between $332,000 and $347,600 for the whole of 2012.
The picture down in Phoenix is much more promising. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Phoenix for July 2011 was 100.54 and the Index for July 2012 was 117.22, a year-on-year increase of 16.59%. Hopefully, this trend will trickle up and have an effect on Sedona values.
Looking at Distressed Properties (Short Sales and Foreclosures), the number of Closed Sales has reduced from about 12 per month in 2011 down to 8 per month so far in 2012. The ratio of Short Sales to Foreclosure Sales was 31.5% Short Sales and 68.5% Foreclosures in 2011. So far this year the numbers are 36.1% and 63.9%, respectively. In the Sedona market, the percentage of distressed sales has shrunk from about 46% in September 2011 to 19% in September 2012.
The RealtyTrac® U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for August 2012 showed a distinct divergence between filings in judicial foreclosure States and non-judicial foreclosure States. The latter, which includes Arizona, stayed on a downward trajectory with few exceptions. Judicial States, like Florida, Illinois, New Jersey and New York continued a trend of showing increases in filings. Twenty States registered year-on-year percentage increases, led by Kentucky (73), New Jersey (65), New York (56), Maryland (54), Illinois (42) and Pennsylvania (41). Foreclosure activity in the 24 non-judicial States and District of Columbia combined, decreased 31 percent annually. However, 15 of these non-judicial States posted monthly increases, including Arkansas (61), Utah (41), Colorado (25) and Washington (23).
U.S. bank repossessions (REOs) in August decreased 2 percent from the previous month, and were down 19% annually. This is the 22nd consecutive month with a year-on-year decline. Despite this improving trend, our close neighbor California still posted the nation’s third highest State foreclosure rate. One in every 340 California housing units had a foreclosure filing in August, twice the national average.
There were 24 closed sales of Residential Vacant Land in the Quarter. This compares with 28 in the first Quarter, and 35 in the second Quarter. Dividing the total acreage sold into the total value of those sales, the Average Price per Acre for the first three quarters of 2012 has been $210,502; $166,383; and $191,875 respectively. The chart below shows the six month moving average of this series.
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All statistics have been obtained from the Sedona Verde Valley Association of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service, or as attributed in the text.
Sean Baguley is an Associate Broker with Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty, 1370 Highway 89A in Sedona, Arizona. He brings a world of financial and executive skill to the table.
His earlier career spanned over 30 years in the International Financial Markets, mainly in Bonds and Derivatives, based in London. He has dealt with institutional and corporate clients, structuring complex transactions. He has well-honed negotiating skills that make every move simplified and streamlined.
Sean’s background enables him to see the bigger picture. Clients count on him to weigh their long-term real estate goals and bring their dreams into reality. He is astute about the Sedona property market, having moved here from New York City in October 2001. He helps buyers and sellers make the most of the area, whether they are investing in a retirement home, moving up, or searching for the perfect desert sanctuary.
When buying or selling a home in Sedona, it’s essential to work with an agent whose depth of skill spans finance, business, management and marketing.
Sean Baguley brings all this and a unique compassion for people and their needs, to each and every client. Contact him at 928-399-4700 or email Sean.Baguley@SothebysRealty.com to discuss how to make your Sedona lifestyle dream a reality.