Home » Business » America Has Excess Energy Capacity Until 2025

America Has Excess Energy Capacity Until 2025

Sedona AZ (November 12, 2012) – In June 2012, the U.S. government announced that total energy consumption in homes remained relatively stable for many years as increased energy efficiency offset the increase in the number and average size of housing units, according to the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS).

The average household consumed 90 million British thermal units (Btu) in 2009, based on RECS data. This average continues the downward trend in per-household energy consumption of the last thirty years. Improvements in efficiency for space heating, air conditioning, and major appliances have all led to decreased consumption per household, despite increases in the number of homes, the average size of homes, and the use of electronics.

Newer homes also tend to feature better insulation and other characteristics, such as double-pane windows, that improve the building envelope.

The larger sample size for the 2009 RECS allowed for the release of data and comparisons to be made for sixteen individual states. For example, the average energy expenditure for a New Jersey household was $3,065, more than twice as much as the $1,423 for the average California household. The difference in these expenditures is mainly due to the higher demand for heating in New Jersey.

 

Average home energy expenditures for selected states, 2009

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey.

Notes: Graph includes occupied, primary housing units only. Expenditures reflect utility bills for fuels delivered to the residential sector.

RECS characteristics data, released in early 2011, showed an increasing number of televisions, computers, and other electronic devices that add to household plug loads as well as the greater use of energy-efficient appliances. The first set of consumption and expenditures data tables, released June 2012, shows total and average energy consumption and expenditures by regional, structural, and demographic characteristics.

In 2000, a boom in construction of new natural gas fired plants began, quickly bringing capacity back into balance with demand and, in fact, creating excess capacity.

Construction of new intermittent wind capacity that sometimes needs backup capacity also began to grow after 2000. More recently, the 2008-2009 economic recession caused a significant drop in electricity demand, which has recovered only partially in the post-recession period. In combination with slow near-term growth in electricity demand, the slow economic recovery creates excess generating capacity. 

Capacity currently requires only a limited amount of additional capacity before 2025, even with older capacity retired.

In 2025, capacity growth and demand growth are in balance again, and they grow at similar rates through 2035.

Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing source of marketed energy in the Department of Energy’s AEO2012 report, increasing by an average of 3.0 percent per year from 2010 to 2035, compared to an average of 1.6 percent per year for total world energy consumption.

In many parts of the world, concerns about the security of energy supplies and the environmental consequences of GHG emissions have spurred government policies that support rapid growth in renewable energy installations.

Hydropower is well-established worldwide, accounting for 83 percent of total renewable electricity generation in 2010. Growth in hydroelectric generation accounts for about one-half of the world increase in renewable generation. In Brazil and the developing nations of Asia, significant builds of mid- and large-scale hydropower plants are expected, and the two regions together account for two-thirds of the total world increase in hydroelectric generation from 2010 to 2035.

Solar power is the fastest-growing source of renewable energy in the outlook, with annual growth averaging 11.7 percent. However, because it currently accounts for only 0.4 percent of total renewable generation, solar remains a minor part of the renewable mix even in 2035, when its share reaches 3 percent.

Wind generation accounts for the largest increment in non-hydropower renewable generation with about 60 percent of the total increase, as compared with solar’s 12 percent.

The rate of wind generation slows markedly after 2020 because most government wind goals are achieved and wind must then compete on the basis of economics with fossil fuels.

Wind-powered generating capacity has grown swiftly over the past decade, from 18 gigawatts of installed capacity in 2000 to an estimated 179 gigawatts in 2010. 

Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) have a major impact on the growth of renewable distributed generation in the commercial sector. Although most ITCs are set to expire at the end of 2016, the tax credit for solar PV installations reverts from 30 percent to 10 percent and continues indefinitely. Commercial PV capacity increases by 2.7 percent annually from 2010 through 2035.

Natural gas generation grows by 42 percent from 2010 to 2035, and its share of total generation increases from 24 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2035.

The relatively low cost of natural gas makes the dispatching of existing natural gas plants more competitive with coal plants and, in combination with relatively low capital costs, makes natural gas the primary choice to fuel new generation capacity.

Natural-gas-fired plants account for 60 percent of capacity additions between 2011 and 2035. Again, uncertainty about future limits on GHG emissions and other possible environmental programs reduces the competitiveness of coal-fired plants.

Annual builds drop significantly after 2012 and remain below 9 gigawatts per year until 2025. During that period, existing capacity is adequate to meet growth in demand in most regions, given the earlier construction boom and relatively slow growth in electricity demand after the economic recession.

For the best Sedona Arizona News and Views? Subscribe to www.SedonaEye.com today.

1 Comment

  1. Is it accurate energy star appliances truly save power? I can’t help but think its a government ploy to come in and controll everything the same as they made the energy saving light bulbs mandatory.

Leave a Reply

Copyright © 2008-2017 · Sedona Eye · All Rights Reserved · Posts · Comments · Facebook · Twitter ·